Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.025710 0.029227 0.033066 0.037568 0.042708 0.048397 0.055177
2025-02-16 0.019870 0.024591 0.030209 0.037398 0.046372 0.057231 0.071403
2025-02-23 0.016807 0.022032 0.028625 0.037580 0.049464 0.064753 0.086007
2025-03-02 0.014416 0.019800 0.026923 0.037078 0.051248 0.070418 0.098488
2025-03-09 0.013011 0.018608 0.026327 0.037805 0.054540 0.078203 0.114476
2025-03-16 0.011564 0.017139 0.025115 0.037427 0.056091 0.083541 0.127374
2025-03-23 0.010791 0.016528 0.025019 0.038590 0.059921 0.092465 0.146458
2025-03-30 0.009558 0.015078 0.023499 0.037386 0.059935 0.095495 0.156570
2025-04-06 0.008666 0.014055 0.022512 0.036874 0.060923 0.100050 0.169489
2025-04-13 0.007714 0.012835 0.021084 0.035478 0.060277 0.101811 0.177805
2025-04-20 0.007377 0.012588 0.021204 0.036649 0.064024 0.111218 0.200238
2025-04-27 0.007052 0.012324 0.021261 0.037698 0.067631 0.120680 0.223710
2025-05-04 0.006745 0.012077 0.021341 0.038829 0.071557 0.131207 0.250538
2025-05-11 0.006249 0.011446 0.020692 0.038579 0.072932 0.137231 0.269542
2025-05-18 0.005869 0.010989 0.020308 0.038770 0.075132 0.144973 0.292694
2025-05-25 0.005431 0.010383 0.019592 0.038252 0.075888 0.149974 0.310822
2025-06-01 0.005195 0.010140 0.019534 0.039003 0.079219 0.160354 0.341190
2025-06-08 0.004844 0.009640 0.018937 0.038612 0.080177 0.165992 0.362048
2025-06-15 0.004700 0.009539 0.019113 0.039814 0.084554 0.179130 0.400733
2025-06-22 0.004312 0.008906 0.018163 0.038569 0.083587 0.180792 0.413808
2025-06-29 0.004029 0.008468 0.017576 0.038041 0.084117 0.185731 0.434909
2025-07-06 0.003685 0.007872 0.016610 0.036599 0.082471 0.185662 0.444177
2025-07-13 0.003604 0.007836 0.016831 0.037809 0.086959 0.199929 0.489595